The curse of certainty

The curse of certainty

Has anyone else noticed that within at least American politics, it is no longer possible for anyone in an elected position to express uncertainty or perhaps doing so is a third rail of sorts? Public uncertainty has become a sign of weakness.

Let’s take the conflict in Lebanon as an example. Personally, I think the conflict will make the overall situation for Israel and the West, worse. How strongly do I feel that? Oh, about 55/45. I absolutely believe that eliminated an armed Hezbollah (and Hamas)is crucial to long term stability in the region, but I am not convinced that armed struggle is the solution. I think only the Lebanese can eliminate this regional and world threat and that the actions underway this past month make the possibility of that happening remote at best.

Within the political sphere, we mostly hear absolutes. That would be bad enough, but there is evidence that the public absolutes are backed up by private planning without contingency. This suggests to me a narrow view of the world and out role in it. The classic: Our way or the highway.

At a minimum, our leaders should express public confidence while engaging in private planning for the possibility of being wrong.

To quote a favorite current TV theme song: “I could be wrong now, but I don’t think so”.

Later…

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